Nyhter från DNB Markets

As we enter 2012, the eurozone has probably already entered a new downturn, while growth in other industrial countries is weaker than their long-term potential. We now predict 1.3 per cent growth in the industrial countries this year, which is even lower than last year. Consequently, the industrial countries will continue to experience underutilised resources, moderate price inflation and low interest rates. The prospect of continued brisk 5½ per cent growth in other countries pulls the global average up to about 3 per cent. As in August, a collapse in the eurozone poses the biggest threat to economic growth. A possible downside scenario resulting from such a collapse is outlined in chapter 4.

Higher oil prices as a result of unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, a lack of consensus on the US budget and a hard landing in China could also threaten growth. There is, however, also a possibility that we may underestimate the propensity to invest and hire new employees among companies that over the last years have strengthened their finances and now want to expand. Consolidation after the crisis has come a long way in the USA, and demand there may pick up more than we anticipate.